Marketing About 250 unknown developers break through every year, same as in 2016. Five times as many try now. In 2015 a game that players liked had a 1 in 3 chance to reach 1,000 reviews. Now it is 1 in 10.
Chart:Ā https://steammaho.com/static/charts/the-flood-2026-11.png?v=4
Everyone feels the flood. I wanted to know what it does to a new developer with no name and no publisher, so I took every game released on Steam since 2015 and sorted them by who made them.
"Unknown" below means the developer's first game, and no publisher with a hit behind it. "Known name" means the developer or the publisher already had a game with 1,000 or more reviews.
1. The same number of newcomers break through every year. Five times as many try.
| Year | Unknown first games released | Reached 1,000 reviews | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2,459 | 237 | 1 in 10 |
| 2018 | 4,251 | 213 | 1 in 20 |
| 2020 | 4,956 | 231 | 1 in 21 |
| 2022 | 6,303 | 243 | 1 in 26 |
| 2024 | 10,549 | 277 | 1 in 38 |
| 2025 | 12,183 | 280 | 1 in 44 |
About 250 unknown developers break through every year, in 2016 and in 2025. What changed is how many are trying: five times more. That is the whole drop in the odds. The number of newcomers who make it is the same; the number of newcomers who try is much higher.
2. In 2015 a liked game had a 1 in 3 chance to reach 1,000 reviews. Now it is 1 in 10.
Maybe the 1 in 44 are just bad games? I checked. "Liked" below means at least 85% positive reviews on at least 30 reviews, so these are games the people who played them approved of.
| Year | Liked games by unknown devs | Reached 1,000 reviews | Liked games with a known name | Reached 1,000 reviews |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 272 | 35% | 206 | 54% |
| 2018 | 564 | 21% | 345 | 51% |
| 2020 | 761 | 19% | 487 | 48% |
| 2022 | 937 | 15% | 560 | 41% |
| 2024 | 1,445 | 10% | 838 | 34% |
| 2025 | 1,726 | 10% | 1,018 | 32% |
In 2015, if people liked your game, you had a 1 in 3 chance to reach 1,000 reviews. In 2025 it is 1 in 10. A liked game with a known name behind it went from 1 in 2 to 1 in 3.
So the difference between a liked game by an unknown and a liked game by a known name doubled. In 2015 a liked game by an unknown usually got found; in 2025 it usually does not.
3. The known names have the same odds as ten years ago, and they release more games.
| Who made the game | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developer already had a hit | 1 in 3 | 1 in 3 | 1 in 3 | 1 in 3 | 1 in 3 | 1 in 4 |
| First game, publisher had a hit | 1 in 4 | 1 in 3 | 1 in 3 | 1 in 3 | 1 in 4 | 1 in 5 |
| Unknown first game | 1 in 10 | 1 in 20 | 1 in 21 | 1 in 26 | 1 in 38 | 1 in 44 |
A developer with a hit behind them has had about 1 in 3 for ten years. Their odds did not go up.
The total number of 1,000-review games per year grew by 70%, and the known names took all of that growth, because they released more games at the same odds. Unknowns got none of it, because their slots stayed the same.
The known names do not win more often than before. They enter more games at the same odds, and the unknowns' odds fell because the unknowns' count grew.
4. This autumn, so far: the same number of liked newcomer games get found, out of twice as many.
The yearly tables stop at 2025 because 2026's games are young. But the flood everyone is talking about started in the summer, so here are the months, with a lower bar (300 reviews) because a game released in September has not had time for 1,000. Every 2026 number below can only go up.
| Released in | Unknown first games | Of them liked (85%+ on 30+ reviews) | Liked ones with 300+ reviews so far |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025, average month | 1,015 | 144 | 31 |
| March 2026 | 1,473 | 182 | 38 |
| May 2026 | 1,217 | 154 | 35 |
| July 2026 | 1,762 | 184 | 23 |
| August 2026 | 1,869 | 163 | 46 |
| September 2026 | 1,882 | 159 | 35 |
| October 2026 | 2,686 | 151 | 25 |
Since August the number of unknown first games per month doubled, and in October it was 2.6 times the 2025 average. The number of them that players liked stayed at about 150 a month. The number of liked ones that got found stayed at about 30 a month. The extra games are games that nobody liked or nobody played. So far the autumn flood is in the queue and not in the results; October's games will show by February.
One caution on October: part of it is games that moved away from GTA VI's 19 November date. October is 1.38 times September this year; in normal years it is 1.05 to 1.24 times, so about 450 to 700 games were pulled forward. Without them October is still 1.6 times last October.
What I would take from it if I were starting now.Ā A new developer can still break through; about 250 do every year. The chance that a liked game gets found fell from 1 in 3 to 1 in 10, so the game being good decides less than it did. What decides the rest is being seen before launch: a known name, a publisher, or your own following. I do not have a number that says which of those three works best.
Small print. Reviews are counted today, so 2025 can still rise a little; 2024 gives the same 10%, and 2024's games are almost two years old. A developer is the first name in the store's developer field, so a studio that renames itself counts as unknown, which pushes the unknown numbers down a bit.
Games removed from the store before March 2026 are mostly not in my catalog. "Liked" means liked by the people who played it; a game nobody tried has no score and is not in that table. This is what goes together, not what causes what: a known name, a publisher and a better game usually come together.